We’re watching

The U.S. elections are big news in Guatemala. The Bush vs Kerry battle has been front page news here since Sunday. Articles, opinion pieces, editorials, letters, and debates… all focused on tonight’s vote in el Norte.

Kinda funny if you consider that most US citizens couldn’t find Guatemala on a map, much less name the current president. (You, of course, knew that it’s Oscar Berger, right? Right?)

Anyway… there are plenty of reasons for Guatemalans to care about the outcome of the elections. Guatemala’s fate has always been -- for better or worse -- (and yes, sadly, mostly worse) closely tied to that of the USA. Hence the saying here: “when the US sneezes, Guatemala catches a cold.”

The US is Guatemala’s largest trading partner, buying more Guatemalan products than any other nation, and selling more products to Guatemala than any other country. CAFTA, the free trade agreement awaiting the approval of the US Congress will impact the Guatemalan economy in ways that are, frankly, frightening to consider. (As one of my coworkers likes to say “how fair can trade be when it’s between David and Goliath?”)

Then there’s the immigration issue. Guess how much money hard-working Guatemalan immigrants will send back to their families here this year? A million dollars? Ten million? A hundred million? A billion? Nope… this year Guatemalans living abroad are expected to send over 2.5 billion dollars in “remesas” (money transfers) back to their loved ones in Guatemala. Obviously, every threat of mass deportations of immigrants sends chills down Guatemala’s collective spine.

How about tourism? Not counting the “unofficial” income from the remesas, tourism is now Guatemala’s main industry. And although Guatemala attracts tourists from around the world, the number of European visitors pales in comparison to that of visitors from the States. When folks from the states fear to fly, or can’t afford to travel, Guatemala takes a major hit.

Let’s not forget the drug trade. After all, the Colombian cocaine that passes through Guatemala is heading in one direction…. “up” to the States. The drug cartels, the smuggling, the money laundering, the increased crime rates, and the emerging local drug market are all a result of the South feeding the North’s habit.

Even the war in Iraq has touched Guatemala profoundly. Did you know that the first US soldier killed in Iraq was from Guatemala? He was granted US citizenship posthumously. The recent revelations of abuse, humiliation, and torture in the Abu Gharib prison also haunt many Guatemalans, themselves victims of horrific violence at the hands of the military (many of whom were trained in techniques taught at the now infamous “School of the Americas” in Fort Benning, Georgia.)

The list of interdependence goes on and on: youth gangs, labor concerns, transnational corporations, human rights issues, development projects, soaring food and transportation costs due to spiraling gasoline prices, etc, etc, etc.

So, yeah, Guatemala cares what happens tonight in “Gringolandia”.

And perhaps Guatemalans even have an insight into US politics that helps them understand what befuddles the rest of the world…

General Efrián Rios Montt, one of Guatemala’s major political players, is an conservative evangelical who assumed power in the 80s by bypassing the nation’s democratic system. In a effort to defeat the “terrorists” he launched a scorched-earth military campaign that resulted in thousands of innocent deaths. He sought to fight crime by the brutal and pervasive application of capital punishment. His embrace of violence and blatant disregard for human rights made the country a pariah in the world community… outcast, excluded, and condemned internationally. Yet his populist speeches, wrapped in pseudo-Christian terminology, appealed to cheap patriotism and a desire for “la mano dura”, a strong-fisted sense of security.

Sound familiar?

The good news is that when Rios Montt ran for “reelection” (in quotes, because he was never really elected in the first place) in 2003, he was soundly rejected by the Guatemalan voters.

These same Guatemalan voters look to the States tonight with hope and trust that voters there will likewise choose wisely.

Posted by elcanche at November 2, 2004 10:30 PM